• Under 2.5 goals were scored in 85% of Athletic Club’s league home games this season.
  • Under 2.5 goals were registered in 85% of Atletico Madrid’s away fixtures this term.
  • Under 2.5 goals hit the net in three of the last four meetings between these clubs.
  • Athletic Club won three of their last four home games 1-0.

Atletico face tough task

6th placed Atletico Madrid re-start their 2019/20 La Liga campaign from an unusually low position in the table, and a tough away assignment at Athletic Club should provide another stern test to their Champions League qualification aspirations.

Diego Simeone’s men signed off before the postponement of club football across the continent with a dramatic 3-2 win at Anfield to eliminate current European champions Liverpool from this year’s iteration of the tournament.

However, that triumph as the visiting team was a rare high moment in what has been a largely poor season on the road for Los Colchoneros.

In total, Atletico managed to win just three of their last 16 away fixtures in all competitions since October last year, and the usually consistent club from the capital have won just three times on their travels in La Liga overall this term.

Atletico’s poor goalscoring return

Atletico’s troubles have largely been rooted in their lack of attacking thrust, and goalscoring has been a priority problem that Simeone just can’t seem to solve.

Despite having players like Joao Felix, Alvaro Morata, Angel Correa and Diego Costa at their disposal, Atletico have averaged just 1.14 goals per 90 minutes in the league in 2019/20, though that average drops further to just 0.84 when you analyse their away games.

Unsurprisingly, due to the team’s defensive strength, under 2.5 goals were scored in a huge 11 of the 13 away matches that Atletico have contested in La Liga since August – and we think their first game back at Athletic Club has all the makings of another tense, tight affair.

Athletic Club’s low scoring trend

Like Atletico, 10th placed Bilbao have found it difficult to maintain a sharp edge in the final third this season, hitting just 1.07 goals per game in La Liga since the campaign kicked off last year.

At the Sam Mamés Stadium, under 2.5 goals were registered in 85% of the club’s La Liga contests, and no other team in the division has conceded fewer goals on their own patch overall (seven).

With both Athletic and Atletico’s biggest strengths in defensive areas, we think backing under 2.5 goals to be scored again is a smart move, though our correct score prediction points towards the slimmest of 1-0 victories.

Gaizka Garitano’s charges have been incredibly hard to beat at the Sam Mamés in 2019/20, losing just three times in 13 La Liga games there in total, and turning over high fliers Barcelona, Real Sociedad to nil during the same period.

In the run up to the season’s temporary postponement in March, Atletico won three of their last four home fixtures by identical 1-0 scorelines, and having kept Athletic off the scoresheet in the corresponding fixture last season (2-0), we think they can repeat the trick here.

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