HJK Helsinki’s defence of the Veikkausliiga title has so far got off to a pretty positive side and the defending champions currently sit at the top of the table. However, with a handful of sides still hot on their tail, they have no room to relax and this weekend sees them welcome FC Honka to the Telia 5G -areena.
Given the dominance the hosts have shown in this division over the years, it is pretty hard to get good odds on a HJK win in almost any of their domestic fixtures. Although we think that they will do the business this weekend, we are going to look elsewhere in order to find the best possible value out of this match.
Instead of the win-draw-win market, we are going for the goals market and we think backing there to be over 2.5 goals scored is the best way to go. Matches at the Telia 5G -areena have been pretty high scoring already this season and the four matches which have been played there so far have finished with an average of 3.25 goals per game.
The hosts have been pretty disappointing on home soil so far this season and have claimed just six points from their four matches there this season. That stat will be music to the ears of FC Honka, who come into this match in pretty good shape having been undefeated in their previous six outings. However, they have conceded an average of a goal a game against other sides in the Veikkausliiga and a side of HJK’s quality should be able to take advantage of these defensive vulnerabilities.
Given that we are pretty confident of a home win, we think there is an opportunity to further increase the return in this fixture. We think combining our initial tip of over 2.5 goals with a home win represents some good value for minimal additional risk.
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HJK have the better of the head to head between these two sides with a record of 10 wins, six draws and five defeats. The sides last met in a 2-1 HJK win in the Suomen Cup back in April.