It was an eventful day in the metro derby at the weekend as HJK Helsinki triumphed over FC Honka in a thrilling 3-2 win. FC Honka took the lead after 11 minutes, as a result of Macoumba Kandji’s awkward, but ultimately successful, shot from the right. In the second half of the game, Jatuli Laevuo doubled lead but goals from Joao Klauss, Daniel O’Shaughnessy and Moshtagh Yaghoubi helpted the hosts overturn the deficit against opposition who finished the match with just nine men on the field.
Next up for the defending champions is an SJK side who have been struggling for form since the start of the campaign and have just eight points from their nine matches so far. Given the relative form of both of these sides, it is clear that HJK are the favourites to win. They have a big advantage in the head to head and, on paper at least, look much the stronger outfit. However, odds for a home win are very short and we believe this leaves little in the way of value for us to get our teeth into.
With this in mind, we are going to up the risk a little in order to get a better return. We still believe a home win is the way to go, but we think that combining it with there to be over 2.5 goals scored is the best option to give a decent profit.
The hosts have enjoyed playing in front of their own fans in recent weeks and a third game in a row on home soil will do their confidence no harm whatsoever, especially when you consider they have bagged three times in each of the previous two matches at the Telia 5G -areena.
The visitors, however, tend to keep things quite tight on their travels and they have conceded just two goals in their three matches on the road so far. However, given the strength of the opposition, we cannot see them keeping the hosts at bay for the full 90 minutes, so a change to a more attacking formation may be likely. This, in turn, could potentially leave them more vulnerable at the back and gives our over 2.5 goals shout a better chance of being a successful one.
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HJK have the better of the head to head between these two sides with a record of 11 wins, one draw and four defeats. The sides last met in a 1-0 HJK win back in April.