• Under 2.5 goals were scored in four of the last five meeting between Juventus and AC Milan.
  • Juve and Milan are tied at 1-1 after the semi final first leg.
  • Juventus kept a clean sheet in each of their last three home matches.
  • Juventus beat Milan 1-0 when they teams last faced off in Turin.

Place in the Coppa Italia final up for grabs

Traditional Italian rivals Juventus and AC Milan get their domestic campaigns back on track this week with a clash in the semi final second leg of the Coppa Italia in Turin.

In the tie’s first leg on February 13, Milan were seconds from claiming an advantage to bring into the double-header’s crucial second fixture, however, an injury time penalty scored by Cristiano Ronaldo cancelled out Ante Rebic’s 61st minute opener in dramatic fashion.

With the sides level at 1-1 ahead of Friday’s game, a place in the competition’s final is still very much up for grabs. Before Lazio lifted the Coppa Italia last season, Juve won the trophy for four years running, though Milan’s most recent success came all the way back in 2003.

A history of low scoring games

While Juventus and AC Milan have generally been running along very different trajectories in terms of success in recent seasons, their meetings over the same period have generally been cagey affairs.

Four of the last five meetings between the Italian giants produced under 2.5 goals – in fact, an average of just 1.8 goals was scored per 90 minutes across that quintet of keenly contested skirmishes.

After an almost three-month lay-off, a certain degree of ring rustiness is also expected when Juventus meet Milan again on Friday, and with a place in the Coppa Italia Final on offer for the victors, both sides are expected to play with a great deal of caution.

Tight contest anticipated

When the Old Lady last hosted Milan in Turin back in early November, a single goal from Argentine hitman Paulo Dybala was enough to seal the points for the Serie A champions – and everything points towards their latest tussle there on Friday being similarly dry in terms of goalmouth action.

With the recent history of low scoring games in this fixture well established, we think the under 2.5 goals market holds value for the game, while our correct score prediction settles on a 1-0 home win.

Juventus kept three clean sheets on the spin in their last trio of home fixtures directly before the postponement of play in Italy, and having kept Milan out in Turin once already this season, we’re backing them to repeat the trick.

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