Can bottom side TPS get one over local rivals Inter to boost their hopes of survival? This derby clash is massive for the hosts, who are sat at the bottom of the Veikkausliiga after 13 matches, so they’re struggling to beat the drop. They’re already four points shy of safety, which has put them in a difficult position. They meet their city rivals on Wednesday, who are only four points above the bottom two. Could TPS grab a huge win and move closer to safety, and drag their bitter rivals in to danger in the process?
That would be a huge result for the hosts, but they need to turn around some dreadful form. They’re winless in 10 matches, having failed to win any of their previous seven at their own ground. They’ve got the worst home form across the top division, and they are likely to extend that awful record this week. With just 0.57 points per game at their own ground this season, Inter Turku head here with a strong away record, so could they claim an away win?
Inter Turku have got a mixed record this season, averaging 1.13 points per game. They’ve scored 1.56 goals per game, but almost all of their away wins have been narrow victories. They are likely to go for another edgy victory in this trip, which would push the basement side even closer to the drop. However, TPS have a strong defensive record – despite their position in the table – so a narrow win might be all the away side can manage.
TPS have conceded just 0.71 goals per game this season at home, with 75% of their goals against coming on the road. They’ve managed a clean sheet in 43% of their home games, which is a solid record ahead of this clash. However, they’re often unable to capitalise on that, having scored just once at home all term – or just 0.14 per game. That terrible record basically condemns TPS to slipping up at home, and we expect them to have another tough game in this derby.
We think that under 2.5 goals will land here, especially given how TPS are defending. Their low-scoring, solid style has led to 100% of their home matches finishing with under 2.5 goals, so that looks like a value bet. On top of that, we’re backing a narrow away win on Wednesday, with Inter Turku winning three of their last four trips. They’ve won two of those three 1-0, and we’re backing a repeat of that here.
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TPS have failed to win five of the previous six encounters between these two teams.
Tomas Hradecky will miss this clash, as he’s set for another six weeks on the sidelines.
Inter Turku make this trip with a full strength squad.